Ziraat Yatırım investigated the possible effects of exchange rate effects in the first quarter of the year …

Ziraat Yatırım explored the possible effect of exchange rates on finances in the first quarter of 2021. The following statements were made within the scope of the investigation;

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Since the first quarter of 2021 closes the balance sheet period, the valuation rates to be used in the balance sheets have also been determined. Consequently, in the last quarter of the year, the dollar, the euro and the Japanese yen gained value by 13.4%, 8.5% and 6.2%, respectively. Therefore, companies with open foreign exchange positions are expected to be adversely affected by this situation. Due to the relatively high rise in the dollar, companies with high dollar open positions are expected to be more affected than companies with open positions in the euro and Japanese yen.

In the fourth quarter of 2020, the dollar, euro, and Japanese yen lost value by 6.0%, 1.3%, and 3.8%, respectively, compared to TL. Therefore, depending on the increase in exchange rates in the first quarter, companies with short foreign currency positions may experience a high exchange rate expense in this quarter despite the exchange rate gains in the previous quarter, while companies with excess foreign exchange positions could register high income from foreign exchange differences in this quarter despite the expense for foreign exchange differences in the previous quarter.

Furthermore, in the first quarter of 2020, which is the main comparison period, the dollar, the euro and the Japanese yen gained in value by 9.7%, 8.5% and 10.9%, respectively, according to TL. In this context, the negative effect of exchange rates is expected to be greater in companies with short positions in dollars compared to the same period of the previous year.

On file (Exchange rate effect_1Q2021) Companies with high net positions in foreign currency at the end of December 2020 (Assuming they keep their currency positions the same at the end of March 2021) A table is provided of how they may be affected by changes in the exchange rate in the first quarter of 2021. Banks are not included in the list, as they balance their net positions in foreign currency by using derivative products in accounts outside balance out of balance. According to this:

Open currency positions;

– Ak Enerji (AKENR) TL 472mn, Polyester Sasa (SASA) TL 459mn, Sinpas GYO (SNGYO) TL 357mn and Smyrna Iron and Steel (IZMDC) It stands out as companies that will be negatively affected by the variation in exchange rates by issuing an exchange difference of 331 million lira. On the other hand, despite having a high short position in currencies, Turkish Airlines (THYAO) Although you write a TL excess expense, you can issue a TL 449 million foreign exchange gain on the network because the open position is in EUR and JPY and its depreciation against the dollar.

Those with excessive currency positions;

Depending on the rise in exchange rates, Glass bottle (SISE) TL 971mn, Aselsan (ASELS) 877 million TL, Doğan Holding (DOHOL) TL 355mn and Enerjisa (ENJSA) It stands out as companies that will be positively affected by the variation in the exchange rate by issuing TL 223 million of income from exchange differences. On the other hand, although the exchange position is high, Iskenderun Demir Çelik’s (ISDMR) and Enka Construction (ENKAI) It is expected to register TL 254 million and TL 152 million, respectively, due to its balance in USD. Koç Holding’s (KCHOL) It is estimated that TL 283 million of foreign exchange losses can be recorded after hedging instruments and natural hedging, although there is an exchange position.

Legal warning

The investment information, comments and recommendations contained herein are not within the scope of investment consulting. Investment consulting service; It is offered within the framework of an investment consulting contract to be signed between brokerage houses, portfolio management companies, banks that do not accept deposits and the client. The comments and recommendations contained herein are based on the personal opinions of those who make comments and recommendations. These views may not be appropriate for your financial situation and your risk and return preferences. Therefore, making an investment decision based solely on the information contained in this document may not produce results in line with your expectations.

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