In the January 2021 report prepared by the Social Research Operations Center, the Policy Panel on the age, ethnicity and political identity of voters was released. Participants were asked about their preferences regarding the presidential and general elections.
Tell me about the surprising results of the January 2021 Social Research Center report;
“If parliamentary elections were held this Sunday, which party would you vote for?” Participants who answered the question as:
30 percent of voters in Turkey the AKP, the CHP 20.4 percent, the GOOD Party 8.8 percent, the hdp’y 8.1 percent, the MHP 7.9 percent ‘He expressed that he would support him.
The voting rate of the Deva Party, one of the newly established parties, is at the level of 1.1 percent. The undecided were measured as 13.1 percent.
WHAT PARTIES WERE THE VOTING ON JUNE 24?
According to the investigation; The AKP retained 81.5 percent of their votes in the parliamentary elections on June 24, 2018. The 2.2-point transition of voters from the AKP to the CHP was remarkable. About 10 percent of the undecided expressed doubts about which party to direct the support of voters, who tended to resign from the AKP.
A similar situation was observed for MHP voters. In the MHP, which maintained 75.9 percent of the votes on June 24, the transition to the Good Party (5.3 percent) and the CHP (2.5 percent), as well as the 7 , 6 percent of the undecided.
The claim that 5.5 percent of voters who voted for the MHP on June 24 will not vote in the next election was interpreted in the report as that voters with strong party affiliation show their reaction in this way rather than vote for another party.
VOTING PREFERENCES OF NEW VOTERS BETWEEN 18 TO 20 YEARS
20.8 percent of 18-20 year olds, AKP, 18.5 percent CHP, 9.5 percent HDP, 6.6 percent MHP, 4 percent Said that he would support the IYI Party.
The undecided rate among new voters was 22.7 percent, well above the national average. In an evaluation carried out without taking into account the undecided and non-voters, it is seen that HDP and CHP received votes above the average of the country among new voters.
The rate of those who define their ethnic identity as Kurdish among young people reached 27 percent, which was reflected in an increase in HDP votes.
THE PARTY THAT INDIVIDUALS FEEL NEAR
Participants, “Even if you have doubts, which party do you feel closest to?” You also answered the question on the form.
According to this; Eighty-five percent of voters who declared they were undecided again, 3 percent to the AKP, 3.8 percent to the CHP, 3.3 percent to the HDP, 1.6 percent to the İYİ Party, and 1 4 percent expressed that they feel close to the MHP.
Which party did the undecided vote for?
The undecided voters were found to be predominantly composed of those who were separated from the AKP but could not decide which party to turn to.
33 percent of those who said “I am undecided” today declared that they did not vote in the parliamentary elections of June 24, 2018.
26 percent said they voted for the AKP and 9.4 percent for the CHP. Regarding the preferences in the presidential elections on June 24, 34 percent of those who are undecided today voted for Recep Tayyip Erdogan, and 34 percent did not.
VOTERS ‘ETHNIC IDENTIFICATIONS
The party most supported by voters, who define their ethnic identity as Kurdish and Zaza, is the HDP with about 35 percent. Among the Kurds, the AKP is 23.6 percent; CHP gets 10.3 percent of the vote.
A different picture was observed among Kurds in terms of undecided and non-voting voter data compared to the country as a whole.
ERDOĞAN RENEWS WITH TWO CANDIDATES
In the investigation, voters were asked which candidate would vote for the second round of the presidential elections regarding 5 different candidates against Recep Tayyip Erdoğan.
While Recep Tayyip Erdoğan got the highest vote rate against Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu with 41 percent, he got the lowest vote against Mansur Yavaş with 38.4 percent.
While Ali Babacan got the lowest vote with 22 percent against Erdogan, Ekrem İmamoğlu got the highest vote with 40 percent.
In a race for presidential elections between Erdogan and Imamoglu, the rate of undecided and non-voting voters has also decreased.
SUPPORTING THE NAME THROUGH ERDOĞAN UNDER 18 TO 20
The maximum vote rate Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, one of the new voters between the ages of 18 and 20, could get was recorded as 28 percent.
Among this group, Ekrem İmamoğlu had the biggest advantage over Erdoğan with a difference of 8 points and 34 percent of the votes. Mansur Yavaş followed with 6 points difference and 31 percent of votes.