Stock Market Comments: The New Uptrend?

Gedik Investment BIST-100 Strategy

The index drew attention to the downward movements during the day with the effect of the depreciation of TL yesterday, and the recovery was notable as the statements of the Governor of the Central Bank limited the depreciation in TL. The main indicator that we will see today will continue to be the movements in TL. Today, share-based movements may come to the fore in March futures contracts due to the expiration date.

1.384 is the first major support, and closes below this level may add to the downside pressure, leading to a retest of 1359 at the first level and the 1.294 range, where the 200-day average lies. , and 1,256, where the previous floor is located. it’s found. Above, 1,412 and 1,423 are important resistances in the first stage.

Global Stock Market Overview

While US 10-year bond yields have risen to record levels in recent days, risk appetite in external markets remains slightly low, while growth expectations on the other hand The improved ones maintain the main upward trend of the indices. The infrastructure investment incentive package, expected to be announced by US President Biden, has a high place on today’s agenda. While a new incentive package creates positive perceptions, the fact that the package is funded by tax increases somewhat reduces this positivity.

We are in a horizontal band with support 1370 and resistance 1400 in the BIST100 index. For an upward momentum to take place, the resistance at 1400 must be overcome. The dollar index, the evolution of interest rates on US bonds and the movement of the dollar-TL will continue to be determinants in the index.

Vakıf Yatırım Markets Overview

The BIST-100 index, which started the day horizontally, followed a fluctuating course during the day, but closed the day at 1,395 with an increase of 0.2%. While the trading volume was realized at the TL22.3 billion level, 36 stocks included in the index gained value and 63 stocks lost value. At the beginning of the day, as the USD / TL is trading at the 8.32 level, a slightly negative course is observed in the foreign futures markets.

While tech companies in the US were under pressure with rising bond yields, continued heavy vaccination had a positive impact on tourism and aviation companies. Additionally, President Biden is expected to announce his $ 3 trillion jobs and infrastructure program today. On the other hand, pressure on the financial sector continues in Asia. As you will recall, a hedge fund failed to complete the guarantee and caused investment companies suffering. Inside, CBRT Chairman Şahap Kavcıoğlu, who delivered a speech at the CBRT General Assembly yesterday, stated that they will continue to set the policy rate above inflation. Today the national foreign trade, inflation in Europe and ADP employment data in the US will be followed.

We expect the BIST-100 index to start the day in a positive trend. In the short term, 1,400-1,425 levels can be seen as resistance, while 1,370-1,360 levels can be seen as support. While 1,360 is set as the short-term cutoff level, we do not recommend taking additional risks until 1,425 is exceeded.

Info Yatırım: We expect a small buyer to open on the BIST100 index.

Parallel to rising US bond interest rates on world markets, developing country currencies are experiencing losses due to the strengthening of the dollar effect. While the US dollar index reached its highest level after November, the euro / dollar fell towards 1.17 and reached its lowest level after November 5.

When we look at the domestic market, the dollar / TL, which increased due to the credibility of the monetary policy, which was damaged by the change of the CBRT president, traded at 8.27 the day before and reached its highest level since March. 22. After Murat Çetinkaya, a member of the Monetary Policy Committee, was removed from his post as CBRT vice chair and Mustafa Duman was appointed in his place, TL remained under resale pressure, while tightening of restrictions and the The global appreciation of the dollar as a result of the increase in the number of cases of coronavirus also affected the depreciation of the dollar.

Yesterday, on the other hand, while the dollar strengthened due to concerns about monetary policy, the price in dollar / TL rose to 8.46 with an increase of 2.5% yesterday. Speaking at the 89th Ordinary Meeting of the CBRT General Assembly, President Kavcıoğlu said: “In the current period, high levels of inflation and inflation expectations require a tight monetary policy stance.” He gave the message that there will be no change in monetary policy. Concerns that a change in monetary policy will take place after Ağbal’s firing led to a large loss at TL.

Kavcıoğlu had given the message in his earlier statement that there would be no interest rate cuts in April. In his speech yesterday, the president affirmed that a restrictive monetary policy will be maintained. While negative divergence continued on the Borsa Istanbul side, the BIST100 index closed above the 1,350 support level with reaction buying from 1,256 after the 1,330 200g HO support level on the index broke down. in the week.

Yesterday, the partial purchases of shares of the industrial sector in the market, where the movements for shares came to light, approached the limit of 1,400. For the remainder of the week, the previous resistance of 1,430 – 1,450 is expected to be closely followed in the index, while the support level of 1330 below will be closely followed.

TL’s depreciation accelerated. Causes and possible consequences? | Güldem Atabay and Semih Sakallı


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