Is the TL losing value as Erdogan says “Berat Albayrak”?

While President Erdogan’s recent remarks led to comments that “the boyfriend is coming back,” they created anxiety in economic circles. Concerns have reentered to gain confidence in efforts to dominate Turkey’s economy.

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Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s son-in-law Berat Albayrak, the former Finance and Treasury minister of Turkey’s foreign exchange reserves minus defensive policies that led to the crash, inside and outside found a wide echo. With these statements, which caused anxiety in international financial circles, it is noteworthy that the LT began to depreciate again against the US dollar.

The changes that are taking place in November in the management of the economy, the policies of the President of the Central Bank, Naci, which Ağbal applies to this day, have been well received in the international financial environment, after a long pause, inflows of foreign exchange to Turkey began to increase.

“Please let these explanations come to an end now”

DW evaluating the developments in the Turkish economy experts from the famous economist Timothy Ash Turkey, Erdogan stated that the reference to such statements affect the international financial environment, “Please, let’s finish this statement now,” he said. London-based Bluebay Asset Management senior emerging markets strategist with Ash, Erdogan’s description of this species, and warned in recent months could overshadow improvements in perception of Turkey.

Naci President Ağbal, Central Bank, Lutfi Elvan Treasury, and attention began to plant again, relying on Turkey in the international arena with his appointment as Minister of Finance, Asha, also for claims will undertake the task again in the economy of Albayrak, management of the new economy. it is confidence in their economic policies. This process should not be interrupted ”. “Unfortunately, we have not even heard the voice of the former central bank governor. He didn’t even meet and speak with foreign investors, “Ash said, adding that both Ağbal and Elvan are” well-known, competent, open-to-dialogue, competent, respected and trustworthy names. “

Ash said: “It was very important to change the economic management in November, to end the insistence on low interest rates and the folly of wasting foreign exchange reserves to protect the TL. Making a return to a reliable economic policy, the improvement in the perception of Turkey in the international markets, including the Ağbal and Elvan markets “I correctly and was rewarded for taking the necessary measures, foreign investors got the rally (appreciation) that we saw with “he added.

Are the aftershocks of the political earthquake?

Erdogan fired Central Bank Governor Murat Uysal in November and announced that he had “pardoned Treasury and Finance Minister Berat Albayrak, who announced his resignation on his social media account.” Ankara behind the scenes was shaken by allegations that Erdogan was the first to know that the Central Bank’s foreign currency reserves were low, he was very angry about this, and therefore pushed the button for a change in the management of the economy. After President Erdogan backed the change in strategy with reform rhetoric, the Turkish lira appreciated by about 20 percent against the dollar.

After these critical mission changes in November, which were described as a political earthquake, nothing was heard from Berat Albayrak, who is described as Erdogan’s “successor.” Erdogan also made no statement about his son-in-law, or about his foreign exchange reserve. However, claiming that $ 128 billion was lost from the Central Bank of the main opposition party CHP, “Where’s the boyfriend?” The situation changed when he launched his campaign.

Given this, Erdogan, who broke his silence and admitted for the first time that foreign exchange reserves were used to avoid fluctuations in the exchange rate, defended the policies of Berat Albayrak and stated that “His signature is the basis of many achievements of our country. International observers, on the other hand, describe these statements as the aftermath of the political earthquake.

“The original Turks must be persuaded”

The economist Timothy Ash, both in international financial circles and in Erdogan’s recent statement, but at least as important in Turkey in the blood, which may affect confidence in the management of the economy.

Since November, when the central bank of Ağbal assumed the presidency Turkey to 18 billion dollars more recalled that the foreign currency inflows Ash, while domestic residents underlined which currency exchange accounts “Foreigners are taking TL but Turks no, it seems that he is still not convinced “the opinion expressed brought.

“Lost reservations must be replaced”

Severe current account deficit in Turkey, indicating that the high external debt and other short-term external debt Ash, $ 200 billion in external financing needs in the country, again ensuring TL’s confidence, attaches great importance to it national residents exceed the TL exchanged foreign currency accounts drew attention to the size. “The biggest risk to the dollarization of Turkey,” Ash said, made the following assessment:

“The interesting thing is that the local capital fled the country during the Albayrak period. In fact, with strict monetary policy and fiscal discipline, it is necessary to replace the foreign exchange reserves lost during the Albayrak period and restore the confidence of the Turkish people and capitalists in the TL. Remember, during the first term of Erdogan’s rule, from 2002 to about 2011, most secular Turks did not like Erdogan very much. But they respected the economic management of that period, Babacan and Şimşek, and made money with their investments in the economy that was gaining dynamism. Now the problem is: these people no longer trust. “

Why can’t Erdogan convince?

Erdogan made the call to invest in Turkey to the international financial and investment community, yesterday he delivered a speech at the meeting of the AKP parliamentary group asked Turkish investors, “our investors must also take action, produce, export, and we invite you to contribute to employment “. Erdogan is a time to find his money, these calls fail to convince investors, the confidence problem facing Turkey’s economy, experts inside and outside is still one of the most important issues.

Germany is one of Yasar Aydin’s Turkey experts competent on the subject, DW assessment made in Turkish, trust issues towards Turkey, political and economic aspects, said there are three reasons for this.

Aydin, “First to lead to instability affecting Turkey’s geostrategic upheavals in the region. Second, the rule of law in Turkey, having moved away from democracy, Reverend Brunson, Deniz Yücel and used as a judicial tool threatens as in the example of Osman Kavala, they have damaged confidence in the judiciary. Thirdly, they have increased inflation in Turkey, Berat Albayrak must follow an economic policy that can be described as adventurous, it has also been insisted on “, he said. .

Academic studies at the Yasar of Protestant Social Sciences in Hamburg continued at the Aydin School, starting in November recalling that the positive changes in the perception of Turkey in international financial circles since he continued: “The reason for having renounced the Tasks of the Albayrak or displaced when the reliable and of course Erdogan has given the message that he will approach the West again. “

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