Is a coalition against Turkey possible in the eastern Mediterranean?

Turkey’s conflict of interest with the developments experienced by Greece in the eastern Mediterranean to hit the target in 2021. Regarding the allocation of natural gas reserves in the region, Turkey’s economic and security interests are major developments that threaten with taking further action in Ankara. Athens, on the other hand, could be bolder with open support from France and Biden as US president. While the exploration negotiations began as a result of dialogue efforts initiated by Germany, it seems difficult for the parties to reach an agreement on the table.

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threatening Turkey’s economic and security interests in the eastern Mediterranean late last year that progress was on the agenda. Launched between Athens and Ankara with Germany’s attempt at exploratory talks, the hope that the vadets will also be elected stated that Joe Biden will pursue policies contradictory in Turkey’s interests in the American elections, the increasingly aggressive form of France in the Eastern Mediterranean The defense of Greece was also dressed in 2021 The Eastern Mediterranean will not leave the agenda.

Foreign policy expert Dr. Sibel Zengin assessed developments in the Eastern Mediterranean and assessed the possibilities for the near future. Dr. Rica, Turkey will not give up its interests, but thanks to the support it gets through the EU process, highlighting that Greece’s increasingly bold steps to try to launch, “Our vision shows before and during possible dialogue” . Greece, exploratory talks 61st round signed an agreement to purchase 18 Rafale fighter jets from France. Once again, while negotiations continued, he conducted a joint military exercise with the United States. In fact, falling into a serious arms process increases military spending and Greece, on the implementation of sanctions against weapons and the transfer of underwater technology, puts pressure on Turkey, it is implementing strict European allies, ”he said.

‘We must develop a hopeful but cautious outlook’

“EU-Turkey relations are in a challenging year, then a promising statement followed in mutual dialogue with this seneyl terrain,” began his speech, Dr. Zengin said: “At the same time, we will continue to see the reflections of the changes that they are taking place in Germany, France and England, the three main members of the Union, on relations. Mediator Merkel prepares to leave her seat in September on the Eastern Mediterranean issue, That France will be more dominantEven Britain supports Turkey’s membership now that it is also optimistic about the direction of the EU in the current situation, it is not possible to say that a member is open to a sudden conversion. In this framework, for the normalization of relations a hopeful but cautious point of view it will be more beneficial to improve. It is clear that this cautious approach will be more critical once the question of sanctions to be applied in March is clarified. Turkey on issues such as the technology transfer arms embargo and sanctions are not expected for now, although the attitude of the common EU Biden administration that wants to move forward will be decisive, “he said.

“A Europe increasingly segregated and dominated by a populist language”

Assessment of the situation in Europe will develop against Turkey possible policy assesses foreign policy expert Sibel Rich, “Today the eurozone crisis in Turkey, Brexit and then profoundly shook power and the economy with the global pandemic, introverted politics, decomposed and populist dominated by a Europe. We can say that the image of France trying to wrest the leadership of the Union from Germany, establish a European army independent of NATO and consolidate its power in the Mediterranean is another part of the picture. However, the EU will continue to strive to improve its conditions in order to protect the Union’s long-term interests and keep up with the new order in global and regional balances of power. Since the Greek Cypriot Administration (GCASC) and Greece are two members of the Union, the EU, which considers the Aegean Sea and Cyprus within its borders, considers the problems of the maritime jurisdictions in which these countries are part in terms of their own energy. needs and security, as a matter of sovereignty. It seems that; The EU, Greece and the Greek Cypriot Administration in favor of the parameters of the equation engage with Turkey in the area, too narrow a geographic area, as well as the impact of incarceration and aims to limit interests in the region, “he said.

“Will the United States take the hand of the EU?”

The European Union and the negative relationship equation between Turkey and the United States also add Dr. Zengin said: “Without a doubt, the stalling of full membership negotiations from 2016; Tensions between the refugee crisis in Turkey and the EU and visa liberalization issues remain high for a long time. Relations have taken an even more negative course on the Eastern Mediterranean issue since last year, and possible sanctions against Ankara came to the table under pressure from Greece and France. The issue of the expansion of the Customs Union with Turkey was taken as urgent and critical issue in terms of even suspended. At the end of the year, the political dialogue process was totally blocked and a serious crisis of confidence emerged with the threat of sanctions. So Obama’s continuation school can be considered in the nature of the new US administration, has it jointly taken a tough stance against Turkey in the eastern Mediterranean? In other words, does the EU maintain it? “He completed his words with the question.

‘Joint EU-US approach. Of the sanctions’

They agree that the EU member states on possible sanctions against Turkey could draw attention in coordination with the new attitude of the United States, Dr. Rich, “who lives among the members of the disagreement on possible sanctions against Turkey that the EU wants to carry out in coordination with the new US administration in eastern Mediterranean affairs. ” Especially pending the outcome of the presidential elections in Brussels from 10 to 11 December, Leader’s decisions to be taken against Turkey at the summit of Postponed until March 2021. After the elections, the EU sanctions explain that it intends to adopt a common position with a signal that Washington is increasing the pressure on more than Turkey. Due to the Russian S-400 defense system to Turkey’s reception area, CAATS decision to implement the sanctions announced by the US lifts the arms embargo, GASC is possible to say that the problem had already chosen the side of the Eastern Mediterranean. In this case, the sanctions can come from both sides of the Atlantic simultaneously. In this point; On January 20, the work of Joe Biden and his team, updating the transatlantic alliance with the EU to restrain the growing influence of Turkey and that it aims to eliminate is possible to compress its corner. Turkey’s first contact with the new government only to set the level of Turkey’s national security adviser and Foreign Minister Blinken deliberately “The so-called strategic partner” and a distant approach draws attention to a crisis of trust that can be experienced in relationships ”.

‘Biden called Macron as soon as he was elected’

Saying: “As soon as he is elected, Biden’s pursuit of EU Macron instead of Merkel aims to act together with France.” Rich, “in the warships to intimidate Turkey and the sender warplanes, the military exercises that finally Greece with the Rafale fighter France sells the unwillingness of the planes to act together, they may resort to maneuvers that could escalate the crisis with Turkey in the US region and a further increase in the probability that it will seek equilibrium Adding the problems of Syria and Libya to the equation, a France emerges that drags the EU and the US into this In context, between Turkey and Greece it has long been suspected that it appears to play a constructive role in the region where Merkel lowers blood pressure, leaving the seat in September. Therefore, the European Council will take place from 25 to 26 March regarding sanctions, Turkey will be instrumental in leading the decision, ”he said.

Well, does the wind blow backwards?

Noting that a positive picture can be drawn with the resumption of talks, Dr. Rich, “many years of chronic tension between Turkey and Greece, the EU wished it would have a harsh return by the end of 2020, the latter became direct part of the problem. ” However, as the date of the EU Leaders Summit approaches, it is appropriate to consider resuming exploratory talks between the two NATO allies, which were interrupted in 2016, which “were not for the resolution of the disputes, but to reduce tension. ” as a positive sign.

On the other hand, the fact that the two neighboring countries sit at the dialogue table is a sign of mutual goodwill, while the joint exercise of the United States with Greece and the Greek Cypriot Administration in the same period is a provocative and worrying. As long as such provocations continue, the next few days may be hot. If a reverse compromise approach is maintained, the Summit decision can be made to continue disputes with negotiations. Turkey, presented it as a proposal for the Eastern Mediterranean Conference.

We see a positive atmosphere beginning to blow before the March summit with the EU’s call for a “positive agenda”. Turkey, a prospect of EU membership that will never be broken again, reiterated in recent days that it expects cooperation. Sanctions or isolation in the direction that the wind blows ultimately, stability in Turkey’s membership in the EU will play a passive counter-interest role in the Eastern Mediterranean equations without departing from the lasting perspective ”, He said.

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