Interesting developments in weekly CBRT data

Sales of foreign currency deposits were not converted into TL deposits

Residents’ currency deposit accounts decreased by $ 2.4 billion in the week ending April 2, from $ 223.669 billion to $ 221.201 billion. While the decrease in deposits of real persons, that is, households, was $ 1 billion, there was a decrease of $ 1.4 billion in legal persons in the last week.

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Looking at the data adjusted for the parity effect, the drop in local foreign currency deposits is 2,040 million dollars. Of this, $ 718 million belongs to households and $ 1.3 billion to businesses.

The decrease in foreign currency deposits adjusted for the parity effect is around TL 16.5 billion with US $ 2 billion. Regarding the TL deposit, there is a total decrease of TL 1.98 billion per week. This explains why the foreign currency sold is not transferred to deposits. If legal entities had transferred their sales abroad due to the payment of their external debt, it would seem logical that local households would return to deposits in TL. It does not seem logical that the protectionist profile, which maintains its deposits in foreign currency, resort to public lands with the currency changed. The remaining option can be gold, or part of the stronger TL, under the pillow.

As you will recall, after Ağbal’s unexpected dismissal, the dollar rate rose to 8.47 this week, while trading in the 8.15-8.25 range this week, it is at the highest level after Ağbal’s appointment in November.

Foreign sales continue after the Ağbal shock

According to the weekly securities statistics of the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, the reorganization of the outflow of foreign capital from Ağbal-Kavcioglu continues.

The week following the president’s change, the toughest foreign exit in 15 years was experienced at $ 1.9 billion. According to CBRT data, foreign investors sold $ 364 million in net stocks and $ 140 million in bonds in the week of April 2.

Therefore, the external outflow exceeded $ 2.4 billion in the two weeks after the change in the CBRT.

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