The International Monetary Fund (IMF) raised its global growth forecast for this year from 5.5 percent to 6 percent.
The IMF published the April 2021 edition of the World Economic Outlook Report under the title “Managing Divergent Recovery.”
The report reiterated that the high uncertainty surrounding the global economic outlook is mainly due to the course of the new type of corona virus (Covid-19) outbreak.
In the report, which emphasized that the contraction experienced in 2020 due to the epidemic was unprecedented, it was noted that the contraction in question could be 3 times greater in the absence of extraordinary political support.
The report highlighted that much remains to be done to overcome the epidemic, prevent differences in per capita income between economies and increasing inequality in countries.
“THE WORLD’S ECONOMY SIZED LESS THAN EXPECTED IN 2020”
In the report, which recorded that the world economy contracted 3.3 percent last year, it was stated that the forecast for world economic growth was revised from 5.5 percent to 6 percent for this year and from 4, 2 percent to 4.4 percent by 2022.
In its updated report released in January, the IMF predicted that the world economy contracted 3.5 percent in 2020.
In the report, it was noted that in the upward review of the performance of the world economy over the last year, growth in most regions in the second half of the year was higher than expected, after the easing of quarantine measures and the beginning of the normalization of economies were effective.
In the IMF report, it was stated that updates for this year and next reflect the expectation of a vaccine-supported recovery for the second half of the year with additional financial support in some major economies such as the US.
In reference to the unprecedented political intervention, the recession caused by the Kovid-19 outbreak is likely to leave smaller marks than the 2008 global financial crisis, with developing economies and low-income developing countries noted that they are most affected and are expected to be significantly impacted. medium-term losses.
“INCOME INEQUALITY MAY INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY DUE TO THE OUTBREAK”
The report noted that production losses are higher, especially for countries whose economies depend on tourism and commodity exports and those with limited policy space for intervention, that income inequality may increase significantly due to the epidemic, and about 95 million people in 2020 will face a more extreme poverty line compared to pre-epidemic estimates. It was reported to be below.
In the report, which indicated that future developments will depend on the course of the health crisis, it was emphasized that policymakers should prioritize prudent policies and be prepared to flexibly adjust policy support, given the great uncertainty surrounding the outlook.
The report indicated that countries will have to adapt their policy responses to the stage of the epidemic, the strength of the recovery, and the structural characteristics of the economy.
– The growth forecast for this year has been increased to 6.4 percent for the US and 4.4 percent for the euro zone.
According to the IMF report, the growth forecast for the US economy for 2021, which is estimated to have contracted 3.5 percent last year, has increased from 5.1 percent to 6.4 percent. The country’s economy growth forecast for 2022 was also increased from 2.5 percent to 3.5 percent.
The growth expectation for the euro zone also increased from 4.2 percent to 4.4 percent by 2021, while it increased from 3.6 percent to 3.8 percent by 2022. The regional economy was estimated to slow down. it contracted 6.6 percent last year.
The growth forecast for Germany for 2021, one of the main economies in Europe, is 3.5% to 3.6%, France 5.5% to 5.8%, Italy 3% to 4%. It increases to 2 and Spain from 5.9% to 6.4%.
GermanyThe growth forecast for 2022 was revised from 3.1 percent to 3.4 percent, while France’s economic growth forecast for next year increased from 4.1 percent to 4.2 percent. Growth estimates for Italy and Spain for 2022 were unchanged at 3.6 percent and 4.7 percent, respectively.
Brittany The growth forecast for 2021 was increased from 4.5 percent to 5.3 percent and the forecast for 2022 from 5 to 5.1.
Japan The economic growth forecast for this year increased from 3.1 percent to 3.3 percent, while the Canadian economy increased from 3.6 percent to 5 percent.
The economies of Japan and Canada are forecast to grow 2.5% and 4.7%, respectively, in 2022. Previously, the economies of Japan and Canada were predicted to grow 2.4 percent and 4.1 percent. percent in 2022, respectively.
With these revisions, the growth expectation for the group of developed countries increased from 4.3 percent to 5.1 percent by 2021, while it increased from 3.1 percent to 3.6 percent by 2022.
“6 PERCENT IS EXPECTED THIS YEAR OF GROWTH OF THE TURKISH ECONOMY”
While the growth forecast for developing countries for 2021 increased from 6.3 percent to 6.7 percent, the forecast for 2022 was unchanged at 5 percent.
Despite being the country where the Covid-19 epidemic occurred, China’s economic growth expectation for this year increased from 8.1 percent to 8.4, while China’s growth expectation for 2022 was 5.6 percent.
Despite the outbreak of Turkey’s economy growing 1.8 percent last year, it was expected to grow 3.5 percent in 2022 and 6 percent in 2021.
The IMF on Turkey’s economy announced on January 4 that the pioneering consultation under the article’s audit findings said the country’s economy was expected to grow 6 percent this year.
The inflation forecast for this year at 13.6 percent in Turkey was set at 11.8 percent for next year.
The unemployment rate in the country was forecast to hit 12.4 percent this year and 11 percent next.