The Central Bank of Turkey (TCMB) has been strengthened recently adopted by the Central Bank of the orthodox policies and has increased credibility with Nacer Ağbal the communication channel to effectively use the downward trend in the dollar rate.
Last week, before the Ağbal Inflation Report was released, the dollar / TL, which was around 7.43, started to fall after the presentation and closed the week at 7.3179.
Entering the week below 7.30, the 200-day moving average shown as critical by experts dollar / TL today it fell below 7.18.
Euro / TL fell below 8.69.
Experts said that the first presentation of the year of the Ağbal Inflation Report was transparent, candid and informative, and that a strong communication policy stance was demonstrated in reducing inflation to permanent single digits.
The growing credibility of CBT and Ağbal heard that confidence is increasingly the dollar exchange rate due to a stronger downward trend than continued stated that experts from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), increased interest in the presence of the Turkish lira raising the growth forecast for Turkey’s economy in 2021 to 6 percent of that. He said he provided.
Experts, Today’s Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) of 54.4’l expectations of the data rises well above the recall of the acceleration of the manufacturing industry wheel, expressed supportive confidence in the economy of Turkey.
“THE 6.85-7.15 BROADBAND WILL BE THE POTENTIAL TARGET REGION WHILE THE DOLLAR / TL IS BELOW THE 7.30-7.35 BAND”
AA finance analyst Cüneyt Paksoy stated that the appreciation of the Turkish lira accelerated with the strict monetary policy stance of the CBRT and Ağbal’s statement that current policies would be maintained until a permanent drop in inflation was highlighted in the last presentation of the inflation report.
Dollar a global de-dollarization of the environment depends on the course of the index, as long as the oluşmadık of the Turkey-US relations is very important conjuncture changes, mainly the downward trend of the dollar / TL in the Paksoy record assessment can be maintained from as follows:
“Although there are occasional reactions in the USD / TL, depending on the credibility earned by the CBRT, it is possible that the balance formed by the decrease in volatility and the withdrawal will continue for a few more.
Technically, as long as the USD / TL remains below the 7.30-7.35 band, which contains the 200-day average in the short and medium term, the 6.85-7.15 broadband will be the potential target region. In reactions that may come with different dynamics, and in spillovers above 7.35, the recently tested 7.45-7.60 band has become the critical resistance threshold. ”