the central bankfrom the PPK meeting to be held on March 18 interest rate increase to the caravan of international investment banks awaiting the decision Goldman sachs also participated.
Recalling that the CBRT, which increased the policy rate to 17 percent by increasing the policy rate by a total of 875 basis points in the September-December period, kept the interest rate stable in January and February, Goldman Sachs said: “After the February and MPC meetings, if the market pressure on the Turkish lira increases, the risks We have stated that it will shift towards an increase in the interest rate.
Bringing a long-term rise in the US and Turkey with upward directional surprise in the CPI data, we now believe these risks occur, “he said.
Goldman Sachs stated that a weak Turkish lira was added to the bullish risks of the CBRT’s year-end inflation projection of 9.4 percent, which is already high, and the CBRT stated in its remarks that policy will tighten further if necessary. pay attention to the fact that it began to price rising interest rates.
Goldman Sachs, who made the assessment that “Failure to meet market expectations entails more risk of market volatility,” emphasized that they expect an interest rate increase of 100 basis points at the meeting of the CBRT Monetary Policy Committee. On March 18th.
Goldman Sachs also stated that in the framework of their views on inflation, they continue to anticipate that the CBRT may relax its monetary policy by only 50 basis points in the fourth quarter of 2021.