How will the number of cases in the provinces affect the normalization process?
The Minister of Health, Koca, announced that as of March 1, normalization will begin in the provinces that meet the criteria. According to this:
- The provinces with less than 10 cases per 100,000 are “low risk”,
- The provinces with 11-35 cases per 100,000 are of “medium risk”,
- Provinces with 36-100 cases per 100,000 are “high risk”,
- Provinces with more than 100 cases per 100,000 will be assessed according to the “very high risk” category.
- Cases related to the provinces will be published weekly. For example, for a province to move from the “high risk” category to the “very high risk” category, the number of cases will be checked and the measures will be increased and reduced according to the situation.
- Low risk provinces will be shown as “blue”, medium risk “yellow”, high risk “orange” and very high risk “red”.
According to the latest case situations of the provinces, the closest and high-risk provinces to the normalization process are the following:
- The eastern provinces like Batman, Şırnak, Hakkari, Muş, Mardin, Iğdır, Van, Bitlis are in the “low risk” category. In these provinces, the daily number of cases is less than 10 or around 10. In these provinces, expansion can be done by following the rules of use of masks, social distance and hygiene.
- In the category of “very high risk” provinces, the abundance of cities in the Black Sea region is striking. Consequently, Ordu, Giresun, Trabzon, Samsun and Rize have data that double the threshold of the “very risky” category with more than 200 cases per day.
- The number of cases in the central Anatolian provinces such as Tokat, Adıyaman, Osmaniye, Karaman, Aksaray, Sakarya, Konya is again in the “very risky” category and has the highest data after the Black Sea. In these provinces, the average daily case is around 110-120.
- As for the major cities, there are 68 daily cases of Covid-19 in Istanbul, 42 in Izmir, and 35 in Ankara. In this case, the closest major city to normalization is Ankara.
- Referring to Turkey, most of the provinces generally “moderate and high risk” fall into the category. In this case, it seems difficult to open restaurants, cafes and other stores in these provinces.
Is it a ‘normalization process’ or a ‘full shutdown’? What do the experts say?
In the transition to the normalization process, it is clear that President Erdogan also takes into account factors such as the state of the economy and unemployment. However, many medical experts in the field favor “complete closure” before entering this process.
The Secretary General of the Turkish Medical Association (TTB), Prof Dr. Vedat Bulut, stating that the immunity rate provided against Covid-19 among the public does not even reach 1.5 percent, does not consider it correct to “start the process of normalization without a complete closure “. 70 percent of the population must be immune to enter this process.
Bulut, in a statement, said: “Currently, the amount of immunity in society is less than 1.5 percent. We definitely think 14-28 days of full closure are even more appropriate. The number of people who receive the second dose is around 1 million and these people will be immunized after 2-3 weeks. This situation is early for normalization ”, he commented.
Prof. Dr. According to Bulut, to speak of normalization, an immunity rate of 70 percent in society must be achieved.
Only 5 provinces meet the conditions of the normalization process
Member of the Scientific Committee Prof. Dr. Mustafa Necmi İlhan commented on the case map of the Ministry of Health from February 15 to 21 and the normalization process.
Teacher. Dr. According to İlhan, only 5 eastern provinces are close to the normalization process. Stating that cities like Eskişehir, Adana, Mersin, Hatay, Antalya, İzmir and Çanakkale are in good condition along with Ankara, most of the 12 cities of İlhan on the Black Sea are in the high risk category. and it is far from the normalization process.