The new cabinet may or may not be announced today. Prof Kavcıoğlu “Where did you get our interest rate cut?” He said, that is, the interest rate can increase or decrease. Perhaps not until 2023. In the new cabinet, my beloved state elder Berat Albayrak may or may not be the minister for Foreign Affairs, Energy and Natural Resources and even the Family.
Definitely 100 million doses of vaccine will arrive at the end of May, but it may be delayed to the end of June, July, August or September… During Ramadan, a curfew will be declared on the entire dormitory for 3 weeks. But it may not be so.
It has nailed it, if a GIANT with an economic size of $ 85 million, $ 700 billion is ruled by the winds that blow in the minds of a single mortal, it will go astray like the Ever Given tanker blocking Suez. The biggest fear of decision makers and markets in the economy is uncertainty. Especially uncertainty whose probability cannot be measured and the hedges cannot be bought is worse than death. I say that we should create a futures and options market for President Erdogan’s decisions. For example, if I could pay my premium and buy insurance against the risk of Erdogan appointing Albayrak as a member of the Cabinet. Or against delaying vaccinations until July and turning the tourist season into Freddie’s nightmare season….
The greatest asset for a government person or an independent board (ie CBRT, BRSA) is credibility, ie reputation. It is achieved by keeping your promises and giving very clear messages about the future. Last Friday, we buried the credibility of an ulcer-related blood loss coma with the Istanbul Convention and Naci Ağbal.
From this moment on, no step that is taken inside, no promise that is made, not even a concrete action that is carried out, will not be able to bring the deceased back. Let me give you a simple example: let’s say Professor Kavcıoğlu gets up tomorrow morning and increases interest by 500 basis points. Do people change from foreign currency to TL? Is hot money coming into the financial system? Where? Because one day later, instead of going Şahap Hodja, Vahap Hodja comes and reduces interest.
Let me give you the best example of public distrust of Erdogan from the Aksoy Poll:
“According to the Aksoy Research survey, the first option of the citizen who has money to save is gold and dollars in investment. The opinion of citizens to keep their bikinis in Turkish lira remained at 11.4 percent ”.
Foreign funds? Confidence is zero: “According to Reuters, after the sudden change of president Tayyip Erdogan in the presidency of the Central Bank, the probability that these assets will be damaged is quite high. Many foreign fund managers in Turkey up to the change in the economic direction to stay away from Turkish assets recommend “.
Even the EU is now exchanging “red leather for money” with us. “If you are a good boy, we will give you a calendar to renew the Customs Union.” Do you know Russia and China that you trust so much? They don’t even take us seriously. China does not give vaccines because we promised that we would return the Uyghurs, we do not. Okay, that’s it too, so why do you promise? How confident Russia is is evident from the daily bombardment of the regions under our control in Syria.
If exchange rate stability is achieved under these circumstances, Turkey will never find the external capital and technology necessary for fixed capital investment. Even if the citizen increases the interest to 30%, he stays in foreign currency and smuggles his wealth abroad at the first opportunity.
Don’t take a look at the upbeat Industry Confidence Indices and Real Industry Confidence Index data released in March. They were based on the normalization of the economy and human monetary policy of Naci Ağbal. Now? Ağbal went, pushed the TL dollar beyond 8.00, the number of daily cases reached 30 thousand.
Then, what are we going to do? Vall’s solutions are simple. The easiest thing is that my dear President Erdogan said: “Guys, I think I could not do it, let me withdraw, instead of someone who knows these things.” Second, the adoption by the AKP-MHP of a strengthened parliamentary system instead of a presidency in the new Constitution so that someone can say to the Sultan: “My Sultan, there is an Almighty God greater than you.”
Of course, these are not things that will happen, but delusional dreams for those who overdose on powdered sugar. So we need an outer anchor. I mean, someone who attests to the loan we will receive, who will refer to our CV … 3 candidates:
* The EU plan is actually a very positive development. If Ankara (without compromising our national interests) contributes to the settlement of the division of Cyprus and the territorial waters of the Eastern Mediterranean and the Aegean, at least a timetable for the Customs Union negotiations will emerge.
* Handshake with the US on power sharing in the S-400s and Northeast Syria. Just as this would rule out the possibility of further aggravating CAATSA, if Halkbank is found guilty in the case of violating the sanctions on Iran, the United States Treasury will accept a negotiation that will not bother us about the fines.
* Stand-by with the IMF. Finally, this is the stop we will arrive at. Because, there are no other guarantors in your pocket to deal with accumulated bank failures, negative CBRT reserves, and hot money drought.
I’m sure you crowded the financial system the moment you saw one of these three global fund developments today that vow not to press a foot in Turkey.
Will my president Erdogan do this? It does or has to. The simplest example of the fast U-turns that resemble an ice skater when Erdaoğanı gets stuck are the three drilling ships that will conquer the eastern Mediterranean, found in the harbor. The S-400s are starting to rust, but out of fear we can’t activate them. As you saw this morning, Şahap Hoca, who was brought into the Presidency of the CBRT to cut interest rates with an ax, also changed his mouth.
Have a little patience, let the dollar / TL set sail around 8.50-9.00, the sails will immediately descend in the Palace. Because shoes are very expensive. At the end of this stubbornness, there is the balance of payments crisis, the complete evaporation of the AKP and the loss of power of my president.
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