President Erdogan could only resist the monetary policies of the Central Bank Governor Naci Ağbal for four months. We can also say that by firing Ağbal, who was the only factor in the recovery of the markets, “he cut the branch he took in the economy.”
Ağbal, as he arrived four months ago, was fired by a weekend decree, and Prof. Dr. Şahap Kavcıoğlu was appointed. The independent central bank on paper thus replaced three presidents in 20 months.
After the Ağbal acquisition, the markets are expected to mix starting Monday. I personally witnessed people trying to get bankers to buy foreign currency on websites over the weekend.
So why was Ağbal fired when markets are known to react negatively? There is a lot of speculation about the answer to this question. Taking into account that the presidential decree anticipating the departure of the Istanbul Convention was published in the Official Gazette where Ağbal was dismissed, some sources focus on the political dimension of the decision. They believe that both resolutions mean a message to the rank and file of the party ahead of the AKP convention to be held on Wednesday. The president, who despaired of the İYİ Party for the Alliance, is said to strengthen his unity with the MHP and undertake a policy shift that shifts to authoritarianism in all fields. If this scenario is true, we run the risk of entering a period in which social unrest is fueling. To feed this air, the expectation is that the strings with the West will be stretched and the literature of “They attack us” will be revived. If this possibility is correct; Erdogan has decided to return from the new route that began in November, and when he could not get what he wanted from the steps he took, we can infer that he is returning to security policies.
There are those who add to this scenario that the new rector is from the University of Marmara and the expectation that Berat Albayrak will be reinstated. There are even those who are waiting for a change in the cabinet before the congress and assignment to Albayrak. Personally, I think it was difficult for Albayrak to occupy a position before the congress because of the inconvenience at the base.
WHY INTEREST IS EASY TO SOLVE
Another scenario circulating backstage is that Erdogan fired Ağbal because he did not like the interest policy. If only this reason is valid, the solution is simple. We know that despite Ağbal’s request, the president did not allow him to change his bank manager. Kavcıoğlu, together with the top management, who made the decision according to the president, can immediately hold an extraordinary meeting and recover the interest increases. If this happens, it can be said that the reason is interest.
It is also said in the lobby that Ağbal will be appointed to the Ministry of Finance and Treasury. Those who claim that Ağbal cannot decide on interest rates despite Erdogan, remember his message of thanks and say they can get a ministry.
Following criticism from the president at a meeting about two months ago, Ağbal said: “This is the applicable policy that I know correctly. I know that if this policy is unwanted, I will remove it from my post. ” I learned that people close to Ağbal, whom I spoke to yesterday, saw the decision by surprise, and that they collected their belongings at the office and left yesterday morning without being called. People close to Ağbal are content to say “I suppose there has been a fundamental policy change.”
To sum up; The next process, which was already known to be difficult, has now become much more difficult.
First message from TCMB / Şahap Hoca
Mahmut Öğür wrote: What will AKP do now?
Economics professor Erinç Yeldan evaluated the termination of the Istanbul Convention and Ağbal’s dismissal: “Insecurity and uncertainty will increase”