Economic agenda: inflation, real yield, real exchange rate, cash budget, CBRT expectations survey, foreign trade indices
APRIL 5, 2021, MONDAY
MARCH INFLATION DATA – TURKSTAT
In February, the national producer price index (D-PPI) increased 27.09 percent year-on-year and 1.22 percent month-on-month. The consumer price index (CPI) increased 15.61% year-on-year and 0.91% monthly in February. According to the AA Finance survey, the CPI is expected to increase 1.09% monthly on average and 16.21% annually in March. On the other hand, D-PPI may increase by more than 3% per month due to the depreciation of the Turkish lira and disruptions in the supply chain, which will continue to increase the prices of imported raw materials, leading to the D -PPI will increase to 30% annually.
Source: Turkey Data Monitor
FINANCIAL INVESTMENT INVESTMENTS REAL RATE MARCH RATE – TURKSTAT
The following graph shows the February real returns of financial investment instruments based on both the CPI and the D-PPI.
Source: TURKSTAT
Tuesday, April 6, 2021
MARCH REEL EFFECTIVE EXCHANGE RATE (REK) – CBRT
In February, the REK based on the CPI increased by 3.6 points to 69.7 in February, and the REK based on D-PPI to 83 with an increase of 4.7 points per month. The CBRT REK calculation method is as follows: “It is the weighted geometric average of the relationship between the price level of our country and the price levels of the countries with which we carry out foreign trade.” The increase in the REK indicates that the TL has appreciated in real terms, that is, the price of Turkish goods in terms of foreign goods has increased. The REK had risen consecutively in the December-January-February period, but the sharp depreciation of the TL in March will cause the REK to decline.
Source: Turkey Data Monitor
APRIL 7, 2021, WEDNESDAY
MARCH CASH BUDGET DATA – THE MINISTRY OF TREASURE AND FINANCE
The cash budget balance, showing the government’s cash inflows and outflows, had a deficit of TL 3.5 billion in February. The central government budget had a surplus of TL 23.2 billion in February.
MARCH GLOBAL SERVICES INDUSTRY PMI DATA – IHS MARKIT
JPMorgan’s Global Services Sector Business Activity Index announced by IHS Markit rose to 52.8 in February, an increase of 1.2 points per month. Values above 50 in the index show that the sector has grown from the previous month. The largest contribution to the recovery in February came from the US, with China, India, Russia, Australia and Kazakhstan listed as the other growing countries in the sector. The Euro Zone, Japan, England and Brazil were listed as countries whose service sectors continued to contract.
APRIL 8, 2021, THURSDAY
CBRT AND BRSA, WEEKLY MONEY AND BANKING DATA, APRIL 1, 2021 – BRSA, CBRT
In the week of March 26, the monetary indicators (M1, M2, M3) showing liquidity in the market increased compared to the previous week. Compared to the previous week, money in circulation increased by 5 billion TL, demand deposits in TL by 23 trillion TL, time deposits in TL by 24 trillion TL, and foreign currency deposits by 45 billion TL. Foreign currency deposits were down $ 6 billion weekly to $ 217 billion. The overall net foreign currency position of the banking system decreased by $ 0.7 billion per week to $ 5.6 billion. International reserves decreased by $ 2.5 billion from the previous week to $ 90.6 billion; gold reserves increased by $ 0.5 billion, foreign exchange reserves decreased by $ 3 billion. The Central Bank’s net reserve and the foreign exchange liquidity deficit increased by $ 1 billion to $ 44.5 billion. The sum of shares and public debt securities owned by non-residents was $ 31.5 billion, 7.5 billion less than the previous week. Interest rates on TL deposits increased to 19.5%, interest rates on commercial loans denominated in TL to 21.06% and interest rates on consumer loans in TL to 24.19%.
APRIL 9, 2021, FRIDAY
RESULTS OF THE APRIL CBRT EXPECTATIONS SURVEY – CBRT
According to the results of the March Expectations Survey, the CPI is expected to be 11.54%, the USD / TL rate of 7.946, the current account deficit of 25.2 billion dollars, the GDP growth of the 4.42% and GDP growth. to 4.24% in 2022 at the end of the year.
FEBRUARY FOREIGN TRADE INDICES – TURKSTAT
In January, the seasonal and calendar adjusted export volume index increased 1.8% compared to the previous month, and the import volume index decreased 1.6%. The terms of trade, calculated by dividing the index of the unit value of exports by the index of the unit value of imports, became 97.5, with a decrease of 0.1 points compared to the previous month.
Source: TURKSTAT
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