The Central Bank interest meeting ended as expected. Frankly, I think it is the best decision that can be made for this process. But it would be a mistake to perceive this as a solution. It is clear that it has only been won temporarily and that the problems lie in the middle.
In the statement that was made later, there were interesting details. First of all, the entire account is based on falling inflation, external financing, and the exchange of foreign currency deposits by citizens. So nothing has changed on that front.
What does not change is the low probability that the account will be attached. In other words, when you put the fact that inflation will not ease due to rising food prices, that the increase in input costs will continue, and if there is a chance, 15 percent between the price of the producer and the consumer will be reflected in the price.
On the contrary, Turkey is running fast towards stagflation, as I have written before. It is also clear that a currency movement will not occur in a significant way. It is difficult for tourism income to reach the desired levels.
When we look at foreign trade rather than exports, it is obvious that we will continue to suffer. Because a realistic transformation has yet to take place. It is clear that the next three or five dollars will be nothing more than a bum.
Therefore, the possibility of lowering inflation, and the possibility of lowering interest rates at least in the third quarter, does not dream. Nor will there be a significant inflow of money. Among all these details, one element attracted special attention.
Removing the hardening emphasis from the text. Most commentators judged this as the credit mechanism would be reactivated. However, I think differently.
Because even if there is such an intention, there is a consumer debt reality of TL 846 billion. You continue to borrow for a living at every opportunity and file for bankruptcy when you file for bankruptcy. On the other hand, banks are prevented from making suspicious accounts receivable or monitoring.
If you say merchants, the situation is not much different. Their demands, deferral of debts until the pandemic ends and some exemption demands are expressed, showing that the business cannot be solved by giving loans from that side. So what is left in this whole photo?
Let me share this possibility that no one has mentioned. Given the big picture, indebtedness and loss of creditworthiness of the borrower, only the possibility of a helicopter money application remains.
We know there is no money to finance this. When revenue is interpreted in the budget even with indirect taxes, import-based taxes, and fictitious revenue increasing with the effect of pure accruals, the question that needs to be answered is: Will the printing press be operated unpaid and uncontrolled? and then elections will be held? be retained? I think it is useful to read the statements of the Central Bank with this eye. What what?