It is necessary to read well the latest inflation figure announced. Because it seems very clear that he is still stifling interest and that a satisfactory decline cannot be achieved even on paper, as predicted.
There is an important reason why I do not mean interest when I speak of inflation. Because while this situation increases the rate of frailty, it also creates the possibility of breaking with rational behavior.
In the first place, inflation will continue to exist in our lives for a time, that is, as long as we do not make setbacks based on production. However, when loan rates reach the intolerable point, it will be necessary for us to read simultaneously.
As of March, annual inflation reached 16.1 percent, even on paper. We know that real inflation is much higher than that. According to data from the Inflation Research Group, the monthly increase is more than three times that declared by TURKSTAT. Seven-month inflation is also close to 28 percent.
The only factor that will reverse this uptrend is the base effect. This doesn’t help real life either. But if we simultaneously look at the interest rates on loans, the situation reaches a critical level.
We see that consumer loan interest rates are based on 25 percent and real sector interest rates on 21 percent. Under what conditions? In an environment where TURKSTAT says consumer inflation is 16.1 percent per year, production costs reach 31.2 percent.
Here, I would like to point out that the difference between producer and consumer costs widened each month and eventually reached 15 percent. In other words, if the next step is to raise interest rates with pressure, neither the consumer nor the producer can tolerate.
This difference also tells us the difference of at least 15 percent that has not been reflected in the final product, contrary to the expectation of a decrease, which will reflect and increase prices or the real sector will be seriously affected by the fall in the price. capital. and fuel for unemployment.
I’m not sure how many figures we can find on paper at the end of the year, but it seems indisputable that inflation in the countryside will continue its upward trend with the contraction of the domestic market. Of course, I do not add the effect of possible increases in the dollar exchange rate to the cost of all this. That would be the point where the movie breaks.
Simply put, put one below all the facts and realizations, if you intend to read the photo on the right, Turkey will be in the discussion, instead of inflation, you will see that it quickly ran into stagflation.
So what does that mean? The situation where recession and inflation are seen at the same time. Both your unemployment increases and your prices. Getting out of the heroism of Turkey is really going to change the model in a short time, the production will be based on the strange money that will not sustain life, this bill payment must start with a discussion model that will inevitably translate the opposite.
Otherwise, you will lose both individuals and businesses to stagflation. You will appreciate that this does not leave an export company in the middle. Because even if it can survive, it loses its competitive power due to negotiation.
This excerpt sounds sharp to the alarm economy and Turkey’s economy is stagnating in the shadow of unrealistic rhetoric. Don’t you think it’s time to drop the bandage and do a real scalpel?