ANALYSIS: Despite the weak course of retail sales, tourism and construction, the manufacturing industry is very strong.

Industrial production remained strong in February. Calendar-adjusted industrial production increased 8.8% annually in February in line with market expectations. Unrefined industrial production (crude), meanwhile, showed an annual increase of 5.7%. Although the monthly trend of increasing the calendar effect and the seasonally adjusted index that began in May continued in February, the rate of increase was limited to only 0.1%. The recovery of industrial production from the lowest level in April after the epidemic reached about 67%.

The retail, tourism-related services and construction sectors are weak. On the other hand, the annual increase in the retail sales volume index was 4.6%. This indicates some recovery from increases of 1.7% in December and 2.6% in January due to restrictions. On a monthly basis, it is observed that there was an increase of 3.4% in February, after the decrease of 6.3% in December and January. On the other hand, due to the strong evolution of wholesale and automotive sales, the real annual increase in the turnover index for retail and wholesale trade continues strongly at a rate of 15.3% (January: 16.5%).

In the billing index of the other service sectors (non-commercial), despite the strong impulse of the information technology sector, a real annual decrease of 3.3% is observed due to the ongoing problems in the sectors related to tourism (hotels-restaurants, travel agencies and flights. transport) (January: -5.6%). For example, while the real annual increase in the IT sector billing index reached 11.8% (January: 11.1%), there is a 33% real annual turnover loss in the hotel and restaurant sector. and 61% in the travel agency sector.

On the other hand, there is a 7% drop in the real annual turnover rate for construction (January: -21%, December: -12%). In summary, while the momentum appears strong in overall growth, it should be noted that growth across sectors is highly uneven. This may be one of the factors that explain why very strong growth figures are not reflected to the same degree in employment.

GDP growth in the first quarter may be around 5.5%

In summary, manufacturing activity remains very strong, despite continued weakness in retail sales, tourism-related sectors and construction. Consequently, it seems possible to achieve GDP growth of around 5.5% in the first quarter.

Serkan gonencler

Economist, Gedik Investment

Industrial production increased by 8.8 percent annually

FÖŞ wrote: Why hasn’t this economy STILL collapsed?

BETAM: significant changes in unemployment in February

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